I dunno, I would say things don't look too bad for Bernie at this stage. The initial response to his candidacy was that he had no chance at all, not least because of the seeming inevitability of Hillary. But he's since made HUGE progress, while she's done nothing to make herself seem more trustworthy (which is a criticism of her even a lot of liberals share). Bernie is polling ahead of Hillary in New Hampshire, and closing the gap quickly in Iowa (which is really only important because it's an early primary state). Not to mention the massive crowds he's been drawing, even in typically red states. There's a lot of momentum and enthusiasm among those who want a progressive alternative to Hillary, and even some nominally Republican moderates who think he makes a lot of sense. If Biden finally throws his hat in (and we should know that next week), he may well split the establishment vote, which could work out to Bernie's favor. Where Bernie falls short currently is among minorities, most of whom have no idea who he is. He's done well to put out a comprehensive social justice platform, but he definitely needs to spread the word into those communities.
Trump is making many of us scratch our heads over here. Like Bernie, he seems to be appealing to people who are sick of the usual establishment politics, people who want action instead of fake talk. I can dig that. But he's doing it by dredging up whatever racist, xenophobic, misogynistic nonsense he can spew, all while talking himself up every chance he gets. It's pretty disgusting, and it's quite disturbing that it seems to be working--a lot of old white people on the right (some of whom I am ashamed to say I am related to) take him very seriously and believe he means every word he says. But I don't think he'd stand a chance in a general election. Even a lot of more-sensible Republicans hate him, I can't imagine he'll appeal to moderates, and of course he seems to be doing everything he can to alienate the Latino vote.
And with that in mind, I think this race really does come down to who gets the Democratic nomination. I suspect no one in the GOP field will appeal to moderate voters, let alone minorities. They will tone down the extremist rhetoric once they've got the nomination, of course, but I think the damage may be done in the primaries. So if we can get Bernie the nomination, I think the rest will follow. I hope, anyway!
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branchandroot
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Date: 2015-09-03 03:56 pm (UTC)Trump is making many of us scratch our heads over here. Like Bernie, he seems to be appealing to people who are sick of the usual establishment politics, people who want action instead of fake talk. I can dig that. But he's doing it by dredging up whatever racist, xenophobic, misogynistic nonsense he can spew, all while talking himself up every chance he gets. It's pretty disgusting, and it's quite disturbing that it seems to be working--a lot of old white people on the right (some of whom I am ashamed to say I am related to) take him very seriously and believe he means every word he says. But I don't think he'd stand a chance in a general election. Even a lot of more-sensible Republicans hate him, I can't imagine he'll appeal to moderates, and of course he seems to be doing everything he can to alienate the Latino vote.
And with that in mind, I think this race really does come down to who gets the Democratic nomination. I suspect no one in the GOP field will appeal to moderate voters, let alone minorities. They will tone down the extremist rhetoric once they've got the nomination, of course, but I think the damage may be done in the primaries. So if we can get Bernie the nomination, I think the rest will follow. I hope, anyway!